2019/1/31凌晨 3:00,美國聯準會公布利率決議,三大觀察重點:1) 維持利率不變 2) 聲明稿完全取消前瞻指引,5大修正透露鴿派 3) 發布縮表態度聲明,強調若影響市場則果斷調整承諾,M平方整理重點如下:


1. 維持現有基準利率2.25% ~ 2.50%

聯準會官員全數通過將聯邦基準利率維持在2.25% ~ 2.50%,符合市場預期。

2. 聲明稿刪除前瞻性指引,透露5大鴿派訊息

2019年1月份重點

  1. 維持就業市場、家庭支出強勁及企業投資溫和敘述,但對於經濟活動敘述自12月強勁(Strong)調整至穩健(Solid)
    (原文 ...economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. )

  2. 通膨近期有所轉弱。
    (原文 ...market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved lower in recent months.)

  3. 委員會認為經濟活動的持續擴張、就業市場強勁以及對稱通膨接近2%目標是最可能的結果。(12月聲明肯定此敘述為中期結果medium term )。
    (原文 ...The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes. )

  4. 通膨壓力溫和,委員認為對於進一步調整利率保持耐心是適當的。
    (原文 ...muted inflation pressures, Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes.)

  5. 刪除前瞻性指引字眼(some further gradual increases)


3.聯準會發布對於縮表看法聲明,表態若有需要則果斷調整

委員會稱貨幣政策(縮表)將持續進行,而充足的儲備規模確保聯邦利率水準的控制,現在並不需要積極管理儲備供應。
(原文:The Committee intends to continue to implement monetary policy in a regime in which an ample supply of reserves ensures that control over the level of the federal funds rate and other short-term interest rates is exercised primarily through the setting of the Federal Reserve's administered rates, and in which active management of the supply of reserves is not required. )

強調利率調整仍為貨幣政策主要手段,而委員會已有準備根據經濟及金融狀況調整縮表的細節,若未來經濟環境有需要比降息更為寬鬆的政策,委員會將使用全部的工具,包括調整資產負債表規模以及組成。
(原文:The Committee continues to view changes in the target range for the federal funds rate as its primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy. The Committee is prepared to adjust any of the details for completing balance sheet normalization in light of economic and financial developments. Moreover, the Committee would be prepared to use its full range of tools, including altering the size and composition of its balance sheet, if future economic conditions were to warrant a more accommodative monetary policy than can be achieved solely by reducing the federal funds rate. )

4. Powell會後記者會重點摘要

調整利率態度:
全球前景出現放緩,尤其中國及歐洲,同時英國脫歐及美國政府部分停擺造成不確定性風險,使金融狀況在2018年底轉趨緊縮。另外,通膨上升壓力受油價下跌影響有所消除,預計將影響將維持數月,綜合全球經濟及金融狀況,委員認為耐心等待進一步數據(patient wait-and-see)調整利率是適當的。而下一次利率調整將依賴數據,升息必要性則取決於美國通膨狀況。

縮表:
Powell稱FOMC已於過去三次會議中就縮表最後階段進行深入討論,雖然對於銀行儲備需求的估計仍然不確定,但委員們認為整體需求將遠大於危機之前,更高的儲備是現在金融機構擁有更強流動性的重要因素。此外根據調查目前儲備需求估計遠高於一年前,這代表縮表將更快完成,而資產負債表的規模將大於先前的估計。最後強調在經濟環境需要情況下,聯準會將使用聯邦基金利率以及全部的工具,包括資產負債表工具。


5.【M平方評論】

本次聯準會如預期維持利率在2.25%~2.50%,聲明稿中5大修正顯鴿派,而我們認為本波市場喘息來自1月發生的2件事:1) 聯準會轉為鴿派 2) 非農強勁穩固信心。於此,我們認為只要上述兩者仍能維持(缺一不可),本波景氣循環擴張延長契機就能持續發酵,M平方分析如下:

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